Coronavirus: NHS staff are let down by bureaucracy
The praise for health workers dealing with Covid-19 is universal. From cleaners and porters to the most distinguished consultant, all have played their part. But they are working in an administrative system almost Kafka-esque in its lunacy. An early example was when NHS workers turned up to be tested at the huge PHE complex at […]
Coronavirus: Economists have a role to play in recovery
Lockdowns are starting to be eased in Europe. Austria, Denmark, Italy and Spain are all moving back towards normality. At some point during May, the UK will follow. We can reflect on what the government has got right and wrong so far in the opening phase of the pandemic. This is emphatically not to apportion […]
Coronavirus: A traffic light loosening gives the economy hope
The strategy of exiting from the lockdown is far too important to be left in the hands of health professionals. The government’s advisors have played very valuable roles in helping to avert the sort of crisis which overwhelmed the health services in Northern Italy. Many who were seriously ill with the virus died unnecessarily because […]
Once we reach a social distancing tipping point, more restrictions won’t help at all
How long should the lockdown last? Should it be tightened or relaxed? An abstract concept from both epidemiology and network theory can give a powerful insight into these highly practical problems. This is the concept known as the “threshold”, sometimes called the critical point or the tipping point. The basic idea is a very familiar […]
This pandemic may lead to more trade barriers, but is that such a bad thing? Opinion
The current crisis dominates everything, from trade to everyday life. But, within a relatively short space of time, it will pass. What next? What will be the “new normal” after coronavirus? A key policy aim across the west for many decades since the Second World War was to reduce barriers to international trade. But it […]
To pay for this crisis, the government must keep in mind Ricardian equivalence
John Maynard Keynes could certainly craft a neat phrase. In the Second World War, he wrote in his pamphlet How to Pay for the War: “It is only in a free community that the task of government is complicated by the cause of social justice.” The impact of the coronavirus pandemic is similar to a […]
How mathematical models attempt to predict the spread of disease
The various pronouncements on coronavirus are a source of puzzlement to many. On the one hand there are lurid predictions of millions of cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths. On the other, while the actual numbers are growing, they seem tiny so far compared to the scale of the predictions. Almost 100 years ago, […]
Priti Patel vs. Philip Rutnam: It’s in Britain’s interest that bureaucracy does not win
The reverberations around the resignation of Sir Philip Rutnam, the top civil servant at the Home Office, continue. Priti Patel, the home secretary, is receiving a barrage of abuse. Labour’s John McDonnell has pronounced that he cannot see how Patel could carry on. He raised the possibility that she might be in some way “suspended”. […]
Citizens assemblies are no solution to the climate challenge — we need innovation
At first sight, long-term swings in individual seats in Australian elections are a definite niche interest, one for the real trainspotter. But during a visit to Sydney University’s Complex Systems Institute, I noticed a fascinating piece in The Australian newspaper. The Australian Labor Party had a good result in the 2007 federal elections, and a […]
Time for the Treasury to get with the programme — Britain can afford to spend
In the days of the old Soviet Union, so-called Kremlinologists would pore over every utterance of the Politburo, every sentence in Pravda, to try to work out what was really going on. Sajid Javid’s defenestration from the Treasury has led to an upsurge in similar types of intellectual effort here. What was it really all […]
Let the Iowa fiasco serve as a warning — new technology isn’t always the answer Opinion
Last week, the entire world witnessed the shambles of the vote counting in the Iowa Democratic caucus. It should have been straightforward — but adding all the votes up in a consistent way took a whole week. The list of errors is as long as your arm. In some precincts, for example, the total number […]
The ‘graduate premium’ is little more than a myth — invest in further education instead
Universities and their students are seldom out of the news. Ever since Tony Blair pledged to send 50 per cent of 18–21 year olds to university, they have been a persistent topic in political economy. University towns now notoriously favour Labour at the ballot box, often an island of red in a surrounding sea of […]
Want to level up the UK? Look at disparity within the regions, not just between them
It is a truth which has rapidly become universally acknowledged (to borrow Jane Austen’s famous phrase) that the government must deliver for its new supporters in the regions. This is a massive challenge. The gap in income per head, for example, between London and other areas of the country is obviously large. But the firm […]
From A&E waiting times to the Windrush scandal, beware bureaucratic targets
Last week, health secretary Matt Hancock signalled an important change of strategy. Accident and Emergency Departments have a target that 95 per cent of patients should be admitted, transferred or discharged within four hours. Hancock suggested that the target will be scrapped. Instead, wait times will be determined by clinical need. Cue predictable hyperbolic outrage. […]
A tip for Dominic Cummings: Don’t hire anyone who fails to grasp the power of incentives
The job advert issued by Dominic Cummings for people to work in government has attracted a wide range of comments. One particular focus has been on the sorts of skills he is looking for. Computer science, forecasting, artificial intelligence, causality theory — all these topics excite his interest. Cummings advocates a small selection of scientific […]
