Embarrassing academic reversals show expert opinions are often built on sand
Last week we saw yet another major reversal of opinion by experts. For years we have all been lectured severely on the need to finish every single course of prescription drugs. But the latest wisdom is that this is not necessary. The announcement that petrol and diesel cars will be banned by 2040 only serves […]
Was Michael Gove right? Have we had enough of experts?
Experts are finding it harder to be heard. But is that because of how they communicate? And how solid is their much-vaunted evidence base anyway? Using evidence to assess the outcomes of policies is a vital part of good governance. Whether it is examining how a Budget will affect those on low incomes, or how […]
Beware the dysfunctional consequences of imposing misguided incentive systems
Following the disclosure of salaries at the BBC, it has hardly seemed possible to open a newspaper or switch on the television without being bombarded by stories about pay. By pure coincidence, an academic paper entitled “Pay for Performance and Beyond” has just appeared. So what, you might ask? Except that it is one of […]
Believe it or not, Britain is getting happier
The dominant economic narrative in the UK is a pretty gloomy one just now. True, employment is at a record high. But, counter the whingers and whiners, zero hours contracts and low pay proliferate. The political discourse is full of the struggles of the JAMs – the Just About Managing The public sector moans about […]
Cautious corporates sitting on hoards of cash are to blame for our slow recovery
The slow recovery since the financial crisis remains a dominant issue in both political and economic debate. The economy has definitely revived since 2009, the depth of the recession, in both Britain and America. The average annual growth in real GDP has been very similar, at 2.0 and 2.1 per cent respectively. This is much […]
Corbyn and McDonnell’s delusional tax plan would cut revenue and harm growth
The income tax system in the UK is highly progressive. Not many people know that, to use a catch phrase attributed, rightly or wrongly, to the great actor Michael Caine. The top one per cent of earners contribute 27 per cent of all income tax receipts. To put it in context, just 300,000 people pay […]
How to stop tech hubs in urban hotspots from intensifying geographic inequalities
Perhaps George Osborne’s most abiding legacy from his time as chancellor will be the creation of the concept of the Northern Powerhouse. Certainly Manchester, its principal focus, is booming. The landscape of the centre is being altered dramatically by skyscrapers. Peel Holdings, the huge investment and property outfit, is planning to double the size of […]
Less austerity will always mean more tax
There is a great deal of discussion, following the election, of relaxing or even abandoning austerity. There is an equal amount of confusion about this, because the same word is being used to describe two quite separate concepts. The consequences of the government changing its policy on austerity are dramatically different, depending on which one […]
Sorry Corbyn, consumers aren’t as sold on nationalisation as you’d like to think
One of the most remarkable features of the Conservative election campaign was the dog which did not bark. There was no systematic attempt to undermine Jeremy Corbyn’s wholly implausible economic narrative. Magic Money Tree comments aside, Labour’s economic incompetence was allowed to pass almost unchallenged. One part of Labour’s economic offer which really did strike […]
Does the productivity gap actually exist?
Whoever wins the election tomorrow will have to grapple with what appears to be a fundamental economic problem. Estimated productivity growth in the UK is virtually at a standstill. The standard definition of productivity is the average output per employee across the economy as a whole, after adjusting output for inflation – or “real” output, […]
