Ignore the IMF: There’s no reason for its ludicrous forecasts to change sentiment
The economics department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is up to its old tricks again – changing its mind. Just three months ago, the team cut its forecast for UK GDP growth in 2013 to 0.7 per cent from 1 per cent, sparking charges that George Osborne should alter his policies. Last week, the […]
You wait for one bus then three come at once: Andy Murray and economic recessions
So Andy Murray becomes the first Briton to win the men’s singles for 77 years. When might we expect the next celebration? We can look at the typical ‘waiting time’, to give the concept a name, between victories from players from the same country. For example, Roger Federer won in both 2006 and 2007. Here, the ‘wait […]
Global Business Interview with Peter Day
I was recently interviewed by Peter Day on his ‘Global Business’ programme, The programme was first aired last Saturday (6th July) The programme centres around the question: ‘What on earth is wrong with economics?’… Have a listen here.
Always Look on the Bright Side
The American economic recovery carries on apace, with a net rise in employment of almost half a million over the past three months. The Office for National Statistics has decided that the UK never had a double dip recession, and the texture of the economic news has turned positive. But economics is not called the […]
Banging up bankers is the wrong punishment – it won’t change behaviour
The behaviour of the banking sector in the run up to the crash is still very much in the public eye. But this is nothing new. Readers of a certain age may recall Bernie Cornfeld, and his company Investors Overseas Services (IOS). It failed dramatically in the 1970s after allegations of fraud. IOS encouraged the […]
Car crash on the Office for National Statistics website… Is it cos I is Welsh?
The website of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has recently been re-designed. A perfectly functional, low tech website has been transformed into a really cool delivery platform. It looks great. The only drawback is that it is very difficult to find any useful data on it. The ONS is the basic source of information not just […]
Quality counts: Marshall-Lerner and the trade balance
The balance of trade does not attract much attention these days. Maybe it should. The UK has run a deficit in traded goods every single year since 1983. In recent years, this has soared, to over £60 billion a year since 2004, exceeding 5 per cent of GDP. Fortunately, there are two substantial offsets. First, our services sector. From […]
The rapid rise of the food bank can’t just be blamed on government austerity
FOOD banks are a rapidly growing phenomenon in the UK. A few years ago, they barely existed, but an estimated half a million people now make use of them every week. On the face of it, it seems that poverty has sadly become endemic since the financial crisis, with many families unable even to feed […]
Trouble at Co-op Bank raises questions about fitness of the mutual model
IT’S not all fun and games at the Co-op Bank. Just over a month ago, the bank was serious about acquiring 632 branches from Lloyds. Now its debt has been downgraded six notches to junk status, and veteran HSBC banker Niall Booker has been brought in as replacement chief executive after Barry Tootell resigned. Inquests […]
A wake-up call for the Department of Transport: do the proper sums, HS2 is worth it
The High Speed 2 rail project is under fire on many fronts. The Nimby protests in the affluent Home Counties have been augmented last week by more weighty criticism by the National Audit Office (NAO) of the scheme. At least, this is how the NAO’s work has come across in the media. But the NAO […]
