We are all better off than we think
Apple’s iPhone5 has already smashed sales records. The first day on which consumers could make purchases over the web, more than 2 million online orders were placed. Little wonder that JP Morgan has estimated that sales of the iPhone5 could add as much as 0.5 per cent to American GDP. These numbers have attracted criticism. […]
A Tale of Two Recessions: Grounds for Optimism
The economic news at the moment is mixed, and the impact of the 2007-2009 financial crash is far from over. But looking back into the past may give us something to feel cheerful about. There have only been two global financial crises in the past century, that of the early 1930s and the most recent […]
How Big Is My Multiplier?
The debate rages about whether the Chancellor should implement a Plan B, or C or D or even Z. There seems to be a plethora of alternatives. But many of them share a key common theme. Namely, that an increase in public spending will boost output in the economy overall. This was one of the […]
Why teachers are just like bankers
The current highly emotional debate about GCSE grades is not very enlightening. But what has happened tells us a lot about how incentives matter, how they affect outcomes. And at the same time, it shows that unless a proper set of social norms is in place, incentives can have unanticipated, perverse effects. Bankers and teachers […]
How to unpick the apparent paradox of falling GDP and rising unemployment
GDP estimates are eagerly awaited in the City, and dominate the media headlines. Huge significance is attached to arithmetically trivial differences, whether between market expectations and the announced figure, or to subsequent revisions to the data.
But GDP is not something which can be put in a set of scales, say, and measured accurately. The concept is clear. It is the value of national output at market prices. Market prices? How do we value the public sector, where there are no market prices? A series of plausible conventions has evolved as to how to value such activities. But there is a substantial amount of arbitrary judgment involved.
USA vs China continued… The Influence of Networks (and the Olympics!)
The last three Olympics have seen a titanic battle between the US and China to head the medals table. If you combine the total of the last three Games, China stands just ahead, with 121 golds to the United States’s 116. But, the US topped the table in both 2004 and 2012, while China edges […]
Who will rule the 21st Century?
This is a nice big question to ponder on the holiday beach or in the rented villa. A vast amount has already been written on the rise of China and whether the US will be replaced as the global superpower. And where exactly does Europe fit into all this? It is easy to make a […]
The Olympics, traffic in Central London and a bar in Santa Fe
We all know now about the empty roads and deserted shops, all quite contrary to the official announcements before the Games began. No doubt Transport for London used their massively complicated, expensive models of the transport network to deduce that the system would be under massive strain. But a deceptively simple game devised in the […]
Why Can’t Debt Just be Inflated Away?
The debt problems which the UK and Europe currently face are essentially ones of political economy. Basically, there is a lot of debt around and the simple question is: who is going to pay for it? All the economic theory in the world does not get around this fundamental issue. Traditionally, bondholders paid. The real […]
Royal Bank of Scotland fiasco shows the power of networks
The last week or so has seen complete mayhem in the Royal Bank of Scotland and its subsidiaries. A computer glitch has caused their payments systems to collapse. Monies have not been processed, 17 million customers have been unable to access their accounts and pay their bills. The impact for RBS has been catastrophic. So, […]
