My Blog

What Dirty Harry tells us about economic forecasters’ Michael Fish moment
Economic forecasters are in the dock. Last week, none other than the chief economist of the Bank of England, Andy

Farewell to the game theory master who helped prevent a nuclear apocalypse
Last year was a year of celebrity deaths. But perhaps the most significant of all received very little coverage. Just

The death of cash, the rise of trade unions and other eclectic 2017 predictions
It’s certainly been an eventful year. But rather than dwell on the past, what sort of things can we expect

Forget “post-truth”: A compelling vision drove Brexit and Trump triumphs
The buzz-phrase of the moment in political discussion is “post-truth”. Shell-shocked metropolitan liberals are astonished by both Brexit and Donald

Rampant corruption – not just the euro – has doomed Italy to stagnation
So farewell then, Matteo Renzi! The resignation of the Italian Prime Minister after his heavy defeat in Sunday’s referendum on

The OBR shouldn’t be expected to forecast so far into the future
Economic forecasts have become a political hot potato. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) predictions, presented as part of the

Forward guidance is just another delusion foisted on us by mainstream macro
The governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, was on good form last week when he appeared at the Treasury Committee

Dump opinion polls for social media to understand people’s real preferences
So the pollsters got it wrong again. After the general election last year and then Brexit, it is perhaps not

From the NHS to Brexit, give people a choice and they’ll make a good one
A current headache for the government is the performance of the NHS, and whether it is running out of money.

The people of Burnley and Bradford have a point about the impact of immigration
The scenes as the migrant camp was cleared in Calais once again provoked bitter divisions in British society. Metropolitan luvvies

America is embracing the opportunities of AI while the rest of the world frets
The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) continues to generate concerns. The latest furore emerged at the start of this week.

Thank competition – not magical central bankers – for years of low inflation
Tempers are fraying at the highest levels of economic policy-making in the UK. Theresa May, at the Conservative Party conference,

No wonder free trade is under threat: we’re just rediscovering its losers
It had been an article of faith among economists and policy-makers that free trade is a Good Thing. Trade liberalisation was

Look to Twitter for why Britain’s economy proved Project Fear wrong
The economic data on post-Brexit Britain is beginning to emerge. We discovered last month that employment in May to July

Too many young people are wasting their time by doing worthless degrees
It’s an exciting time of the year for many young people, with some setting off to university for the first

What climate warrior Twisleton-Wykeham-Fiennes teaches us about punishment
Natalie Twisleton-Wykeham-Fiennes: don’t you just love her? One of the Black Lives Matter campaigners, our Nat caused chaos by occupying

Why the same flaws afflict economic data as political opinion polls
Who will win the US presidency? Opinion polls have got a bad name in Britain, at least. During the 2010

Brexit was the final straw: it’s time to scrap the IMF
Sports fans will all be familiar with the commentator who almost always gets things wrong. “Arsenal are very much on

Corbyn is completely out of touch with the real debate about UK austerity
Following the Brexit vote, normal service seems to have resumed. A key question in economic policy since the General Election of

The blob is wrong: competition and independence raise school standards
The A-Level results released last week confirm the dominance of schools in London and the South East. Provisional league tables