Dump opinion polls for social media to understand people’s real preferences
So the pollsters got it wrong again. After the general election last year and then Brexit, it is perhaps not surprising. What is surprising is just how wrong they were. The real problem is the enormous confidence with which they pronounced that Clinton would win. The Princeton Election Consortium was probably top of the class, […]
From the NHS to Brexit, give people a choice and they’ll make a good one
A current headache for the government is the performance of the NHS, and whether it is running out of money. This was making the front pages until the judges’ decision on Brexit pushed it off. Successive governments have discovered that the finances of the health service are a potentially bottomless pit. A key policy issue […]
The people of Burnley and Bradford have a point about the impact of immigration
The scenes as the migrant camp was cleared in Calais once again provoked bitter divisions in British society. Metropolitan luvvies and liberals tweeted their virtue and called for no restrictions on immigration. In more traditional areas, there is active resentment at the possibility of even further inflows of foreigners. When New Labour decided in the […]
America is embracing the opportunities of AI while the rest of the world frets
The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) continues to generate concerns. The latest furore emerged at the start of this week. Researchers in the top ranked University College London computer science department claimed that an AI algorithm correctly predicts the outcome of 79 per cent of cases heard at the European Court of Human Rights. The […]
Thank competition – not magical central bankers – for years of low inflation
Tempers are fraying at the highest levels of economic policy-making in the UK. Theresa May, at the Conservative Party conference, emphasised the “bad side effects” for savers of the Bank of England’s policy of near-zero interest rates, a position reinforced by former Tory leader William Hague in the Telegraph this week. A few days ago, […]
Look to Twitter for why Britain’s economy proved Project Fear wrong
The economic data on post-Brexit Britain is beginning to emerge. We discovered last month that employment in May to July grew by 174,000 compared to the previous three months. Last week, the Office for National Statistics published its estimate for the output of the service sector of the economy in July. This shows a 0.4 […]
Too many young people are wasting their time by doing worthless degrees
It’s an exciting time of the year for many young people, with some setting off to university for the first time and others starting to polish their applications for next year. Good news if you have been accepted to read economics at Cambridge, say, or business studies at Oxford. A survey by the Sunday Times […]
What climate warrior Twisleton-Wykeham-Fiennes teaches us about punishment
Natalie Twisleton-Wykeham-Fiennes: don’t you just love her? One of the Black Lives Matter campaigners, our Nat caused chaos by occupying the runway at London City Airport, on the grounds that climate change is racist. She and eight others, including a former member of the Oxford University Croquet Club, were sentenced by the courts last week. […]
Why the same flaws afflict economic data as political opinion polls
Who will win the US presidency? Opinion polls have got a bad name in Britain, at least. During the 2010 general election campaign, many suggested that Gordon Brown could still continue in power in a minority government or coalition. The polling record in the 2015 campaign was even worse. Most polls showed the two main […]
Brexit was the final straw: it’s time to scrap the IMF
Sports fans will all be familiar with the commentator who almost always gets things wrong. “Arsenal are very much on top here” he – it is invariably a “he” – will pronounce, or “Root is looking very settled”, only for the opposition to score a goal immediately and for the Yorkshireman to be clean bowled. […]
