The poor state of macro justifies scepticism with Brexit disaster forecasts
David Cameron has tried to frame the Brexit debate into one based on economics. Standing with him is the overwhelming consensus of economists themselves, from academics to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Their pronouncements are not having that much impact on the electorate if the polls are to be believed. There is justification for this […]
The coming explosion in natural debt is a serious risk to the economy
Martin Feldstein of Harvard is an economist who should always be taken seriously. Writing in 1997 about the forthcoming introduction of the euro, for example, he argued that “the adverse economic effects of a single currency on unemployment would outweigh any potential gains from trade flows”. He went on to predict that the euro was […]
There’s a smart case for diversity – but it’s not the one you think.
Andy Haldane, chief economist at the Bank of England, hit the headlines last week with his confession that even he could not understand much of the material which pension providers give to customers. Less noticed, however, was a speech he gave the previous week at a dinner organised in aid of Children in Need on […]
Don’t give in to Twitter mob: Social media is just an echo chamber
Greater Manchester Police staged a simulated terror attack in the massive Trafford Park retail complex last week. As with many real life atrocities, the carnage began with the cry “Allahu Akbar!” Following a storm of protest on Twitter, the police felt forced to apologise. Almost at the same time, a frenzied chorus rose up demanding […]
Is Britain on the edge of recession? History is an unreliable guide
Concerns are growing about a marked slowdown in the UK economy. The Lloyds Bank purchasing managers’ index, for example, fell to 52.1 in April, its lowest point since 2013. The initial estimate for GDP, total output, in the first quarter of this year shows an increase of just 0.4 per cent on the final quarter of 2015. […]
There’s little logic to 2016’s shareholder revolts against executive pay
The crisis at BHS has focused as much on the ethics of Phillip Green’s behaviour as it has on the plight of the company itself. Sir John Collins, who put his name forward for a knighthood, has said Green should be stripped of it if his handling of the beleaguered company is found to have […]
Surviving the pensions crisis means encouraging work
The Queen’s 90th birthday has quite rightly dominated the media over the past week. Her Majesty continues to break all sorts of records, spending longer on the throne than Queen Victoria and being our oldest ever reigning monarch. But longevity should no longer give cause for surprise. The oldest participant in the London Marathon was 88, […]
Forget avoidance outrage: this is what we really think about tax
Rather like a quantitative version of Hello! magazine, the Panama papers made headlines everywhere. Read all about the vast amount of money a particular celeb has got stashed away. Salivate, be titillated or be outraged, according to your fancy. The story was covered heavily by the Guardian, the in-house newspaper of the metropolitan liberal elite. […]
From golf to GDP, why unlikely events confound forecasters
Life imitates art, as the sporting world has shown this week. The Grand National was won by a horse which had never previously won a steeplechase. The US golf Masters was won by Danny Willett, who nearly did not take part at all because of the birth of his son. With only nine of the […]
Bank bail outs are no model to follow for British steel
The potential closure of the Tata steel plants, and the plight of Port Talbot is a tragedy for those directly affected. A key question is: if the banks could be saved, why not steel? From a purely political perspective, the topic has legs. The loyal, hard working Welshmen, fearful for their families’ futures, contrasted with the […]
