Coronavirus: A traffic light loosening gives the economy hope
The strategy of exiting from the lockdown is far too important to be left in the hands of health professionals. The government’s advisors have played very valuable roles in helping to avert the sort of crisis which overwhelmed the health services in Northern Italy. Many who were seriously ill with the virus died unnecessarily because […]
Pension reform is political dynamite, but Macron’s attempt should be commended
It would take a heart of stone not to be amused by Emmanuel Macron’s current predicament. The French President is trying to position himself as the leader of Europe. But at the same time, the streets of the major cities in France are, quite literally, ablaze. France’s public services are crippled by the biggest strike […]
The economic impact of Brexit tariffs only tells us half the story
Brexit is about much more than the economic costs and benefits, but the idea that the former dramatically outweigh the latter has become the received wisdom in much of the media. Report after report emerges which purports to show that, under any of the various trade arrangements envisaged, the UK will be worse off as […]
Until Scotland’s currency puzzle is solved, independence is economically delusional
The possibility of Scottish independence is back on the political agenda once again. And one question – which currency would an independent Scotland use? – that was crucial in the 2014 referendum has still not been resolved. The informal use of the pound is a very risky option. To see why, the Scottish National Party […]
Forget ‘reparations’, scrapping subsidies is the way to help get Wales back on its feet
Get ready to put your hands deep into your pockets for the boyos and girlos of the Welsh Valleys. Adam Price, the leader of Plaid Cymru, called last week for the UK to pay “reparations” to Wales for the crime of reducing the country to poverty. For centuries, Wales has (apparently) been stripped of its […]
Relax, the UK (probably) isn’t heading for recession
Immediate fears of a recession in the UK economy were eased last week with the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimate of monthly GDP. The economy had shrunk in April, but growth resumed in May. This has not prevented widespread conjecture that a recession is imminent. The Resolution Foundation claimed last weekend that the […]
From taxes to cats, May’s government has been an affront to Tory ideology
Theresa May has finally announced her resignation. How can we capture the flavour of her tenure in office? This can be found in the dry and measured content of the Economic and Fiscal Outlook from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The OBR stated in its latest publication in March 2019 that: “the tax receipts-to-GDP […]
Britain is more optimistic about Brexit than gloomy forecasts suggest
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is up to its usual tricks. Last week, it predicted a two-year recession in the UK in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Even in the main forecast, involving a mild Brexit, GDP was projected to grow by only 1.2 per cent this year and 1.4 per cent in 2020. […]
No matter how we measure inflation, politics will forever trump economics
THE ECONOMIC Affairs Committee of the House of Lords has got its bovver boots on. Last week, the government was given a sound kicking. The issue was the seemingly esoteric one of how to measure inflation. Inflation tells us how much the prices of goods and services are going up. The question is: what do […]
Britain’s stagnant regions are stuck in a monetary union trap
The Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence created a bit of a stir at the end of last week with its estimates of growth in the regions of the UK. Since the recovery from the financial crisis began during 2009, London’s economy has grown by 26 per cent. At the other end of the scale, output […]
