Uncertainty from our leaders is keeping our economic recovery wavering on the brink

In November last year, the UK’s total GDP output finally regained its pre-pandemic level. But although the economic recovery is on an upward trajectory, there is a disconcerting stop-start hesitancy to it. A reasonable indicator of where the economy stands in any given month is the purchasing managers’ index which shows the prevailing direction of […]

Virus modellers must admit their mistakes and learn from the practice of transparency

By now, we all know about the poor track record of prediction by the academic modelling teams advising the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies – Sage. The unreliable nature of economic projections is also evident, as analysis of  the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) database shows. Yet the epidemiologists could still  learn from the experience […]

The mountain of debt cannot be ignored no matter how much the economy grows

Politicians and regulators are increasingly concerned about one phenomenon: buy-now-pay-later (BNPL). Nearly a year ago, the government agreed to regulate BNPL lenders, with an independent review chaired by City expert Christopher Woolard warning the sector represented a “significant potential consumer harm”. A Treasury consultation on BNPL only closed at the end of last year. It […]