As Rishi wades through the cost of living crisis, static growth is waiting in the wings
The short-term pressures on Rishi Sunak have continued to grow in tandem with the cost of energy and everyday essentials. Conservative MPs are increasingly panicked about being saddled with a label of being “high tax Tories”. But underlying all of this is a much more worrying phenomenon. Since the financial crisis of the late 2000s, […]
Despite what we wish, there are no miracle economics Rishi can pull out of his hat
The economic pressures now known as “the cost of living crisis” were at the core of the criticism of the spring statement last week. Those who once eulogised the Chancellor have now been selling their stocks of Sunak. While much of the commentary is unfair, politics is a trade in which the concept of fairness […]
Andrew Bailey fell asleep on inflation and now it is workers who will face the flames
Is there a comfortable chaise longue in the office of Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England? I think we should be told. Because it has become apparent that the Bank has been asleep on the job. In the year to December 2021, consumer prices rose by 5.4 per cent. We have to go […]
State intervention can boost our economy but only the private sector can rebalance it
The government’s long awaited levelling up white paper was met with a lukewarm reception last week. One of the main complaints was that there was not enough – or in fact any – new money for the regions. Many localities have become stuck with low levels of productivity and, as a consequence, low levels of […]
Uncertainty from our leaders is keeping our economic recovery wavering on the brink
In November last year, the UK’s total GDP output finally regained its pre-pandemic level. But although the economic recovery is on an upward trajectory, there is a disconcerting stop-start hesitancy to it. A reasonable indicator of where the economy stands in any given month is the purchasing managers’ index which shows the prevailing direction of […]
Virus modellers must admit their mistakes and learn from the practice of transparency
By now, we all know about the poor track record of prediction by the academic modelling teams advising the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies – Sage. The unreliable nature of economic projections is also evident, as analysis of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) database shows. Yet the epidemiologists could still learn from the experience […]
Boris Johnson may be in political peril but his Covid-19 strategy was worth the risk
The last days have been of decisive importance in the life of this pandemic: the total number of Covid-19 cases in the country has started to fall, and is continuing to fall. Finally, we are well past the worst. Something to consider is that the figures we see in the headlines, no matter what data […]
The mountain of debt cannot be ignored no matter how much the economy grows
Politicians and regulators are increasingly concerned about one phenomenon: buy-now-pay-later (BNPL). Nearly a year ago, the government agreed to regulate BNPL lenders, with an independent review chaired by City expert Christopher Woolard warning the sector represented a “significant potential consumer harm”. A Treasury consultation on BNPL only closed at the end of last year. It […]
Lending a hand: government loans to energy firms can’t be the final answer
Some of the media seem to have become addicted to gloom. Most outfits have become cautiously optimistic on Covid-19, but the prospective double squeeze on living standards has rushed in to fill the gap. Consumers are faced with tax increases and sharp rises in energy bills. The surge in the world price of energy means […]
Three Christmas presents for a Cabinet that lacks political grip
At this time of the year hapless members of the Cabinet, and even the Prime Minister himself, are entitled to some charity. We might usefully consider the gifts we would put under their trees on Christmas morning. Top of the list could well be both a Peloton and a deckchair. Sarah Healey, permanent secretary at […]
