As we resume our life back to normal, the costs of lockdowns become painfully clear
The enormous costs of a policy of strict lockdowns – identified and predicted by many economists in the summer of 2020 – are now becoming obvious. As our memory of them starts to fade away, the World Health Organisation (WHO) is still tracking vital Covid-19 data. The WHO provides estimates of the excess deaths due […]
As Omicron sweeps through again, Britain has finally learnt to live with Covid-19
A huge third wave of Omicron cases is sweeping the country. This will be readily apparent in the everyday lives of many people. Family members have it, work colleagues have gone down, small restaurants and service businesses must close for a few days through staff shortages. According to the reliable Zoe Covid data produced by […]
Virus modellers must admit their mistakes and learn from the practice of transparency
By now, we all know about the poor track record of prediction by the academic modelling teams advising the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies – Sage. The unreliable nature of economic projections is also evident, as analysis of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) database shows. Yet the epidemiologists could still learn from the experience […]
Boris Johnson may be in political peril but his Covid-19 strategy was worth the risk
The last days have been of decisive importance in the life of this pandemic: the total number of Covid-19 cases in the country has started to fall, and is continuing to fall. Finally, we are well past the worst. Something to consider is that the figures we see in the headlines, no matter what data […]
Three Christmas presents for a Cabinet that lacks political grip
At this time of the year hapless members of the Cabinet, and even the Prime Minister himself, are entitled to some charity. We might usefully consider the gifts we would put under their trees on Christmas morning. Top of the list could well be both a Peloton and a deckchair. Sarah Healey, permanent secretary at […]
Precaution is a useful thing, but designing policy based on maybes is a dangerous road
It is is so familiar, the script almost writes itself. Health professionals start to call for more restrictive measures at the slightest whiff of bad news. The government initially dismisses the concerns. Gradually, ministers – many of them almost wholly innumerate – are beaten into submission by projections of what might happen. If we were […]
New winter Covid restrictions would make it official policy to pray for a better day
A trip to the Scottish Highlands is always refreshing. Despite the shortening days, the hills were in perfect late autumn condition. It clears your mind and helps you reflect on what’s not working. This time around, it was more interesting than usual: it illuminated the stark contradictions and hypocrisy of the current Covid regulations, administered […]
In the end, the Swedes really did have the last laugh with a relaxed Covid approach
They never give up. The finger waggers who know what is good for the rest of us; the epidemiologists trying to intimidate us with their seemingly terrifying but actually rather trivial models of applied mathematics. The vested interests in the NHS creating excuses for the inefficiencies inherent in the system. If we already have restrictive […]
Labour shortages make light work of fears of a post-Brexit unemployment surge
In the two decades before the Brexit referendum, there was a large increase in the number of people moving from the EU to the UK. In the mid-1990s there were less than one million EU citizens living in the UK. By the mid-2010s, this had risen to 3.6 million. The bulk of the increase came […]
Science has been overrun with politics – it’s time to take it back
At the onset of the Covid pandemic in February 2020, the pages of the Lancet, a very prestigious medical journal, carried a statement eulogising China and the efforts it had already made to deal with the virus. For the luminaries who signed the statement, no praise could be too high for the Chinese. They had […]
