Boris Johnson has sown dangerous ambiguity over Covid rules with mixed messaging for Freedom Day
Sixty years ago, Daniel Ellsberg, as a graduate student at Harvard, wrote a now-seminal paper on behavioural economics. The conclusions of “Risk, ambiguity and the Savage axioms” pose a fundamental challenge to the conventional economic model of rational choice, as well as the Government’s current Covid strategy. Despite its seemingly esoteric nature, an experiment carried […]
Boris Johnson’s political capital to extend Covid restrictions is waning as more Brits are vaccinated
Millions of Britons piled into social gatherings up and down the country to watch our boys notch up a notable triumph over the Croatian football team on Sunday. We will never know for sure how many of these were compliant with the current Covid regulations, but it is a fair bet that a sizeable minority […]
Longer lockdown based on hypotheticals would come with serious economic costs
The penny is finally beginning to drop. The health service’s focus on giving absolute priority to the treatment of Covid-19 generates costs and problems on a massive scale. Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, has warned of the huge pressures on the NHS from the backlog of non-Covid cases. Many of these are life-threatening […]
Scientists’ dire warning of thousands of deaths from Indian variant is a dangerous abuse of public trust
The epidemiologists are at it again. The Indian variant of the Covid virus has resurrected their projections of doom and gloom. The scientists who advise the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) have said the full lifting of lockdown on 21 June could lead to 1,000 deaths a day and no fewer than 10,000 hospitalisations […]
Boris Johnson’s push for mass testing is set for failure before it even gets off the grounds
The campaign for regular, mass Covid testing has begun in earnest. From last Friday, everyone in England has been eligible to access lateral flow tests for free. The government would like people to test themselves twice a week. Under the slogan “Hands, Face, Space, Fresh Air”, the public is being urged to use the NHS […]
Government scientists must be transparent about flawed Covid models
The strength of the economic recovery as Britain emerges from lockdown is a hotly contested subject among economists. Some believe there will be a massive surge in demand as consumers celebrate their freedom, others argue it will take time to claw back confidence. Economic forecasts are subject to the same faults as any projections, as […]
The curious case of Boris Johnson’s popularity after a year of lockdowns
In 1993, economics Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman published a paper with the enigmatic title “When More Pain Is Preferred to Less”. He and his colleagues conducted two experiments with the same group of people. In the first, the participants had to hold their hand in cold water for a specified time. They had to keep […]
Calorie counting gimmicks and sugar taxes won’t solve obesity crisis
In the early days of the pandemic obesity was identified as a key factor behind hospitalisation rates and deaths from Covid. The Prime Minister knew this personally, from his own brush with mortality last April. This is on top of the already well-established links between obesity and other life-threatening conditions such as Type 2 diabetes, […]
Vaccine passports: a free market and plentiful pubs mean they won’t work in the UK
As the country emerges slowly from lockdown, the debate over so-called vaccine passports gathers pace. Yesterday, Matt Hancock confirmed Britain was looking into the proposition for international travel. Countries such as Greece and Spain have a strong incentive to develop a system with us. Each attracts large numbers of British tourists in a normal year. Whatever the […]
Beware those who’d lock us down and throw away the key
Rather like dedicated Remainers, pro-lockdown enthusiasts never seem to give up. Their ardour will have been fuelled by leaks over the weekend of results from the epidemiological models. Apparently, even though quite soon all the over-70s will have been jabbed, lifting restrictions before the summer would lead to a massive third wave of the virus. […]
