The IMF is in trouble – and not just due to its poor forecasts
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has played a prominent role in world financial affairs in the post-Second World War period. In the 1950s and 1960s, its main purpose was to support the system of fixed exchange rates. Since then its activities have evolved to embrace developing economies and both banking and sovereign debt crises. The […]
Are the markets telling the truth?
The opening month of 2016 has been marked by sharp falls in asset prices, not just in financial markets but in commodities such as oil. The conventional wisdom is that the markets form a rational assessment of future prospects for the economy, and set prices accordingly. So if prices fall, we should be downgrading our […]
China is drowning in private sector debt: there’s no telling how this one will end
The eyes of the financial and economics worlds are now fixed on China, with focus predominantly on Chinese stock markets and the country’s GDP figures. A fascinating perspective was provided last week in the leafy borough of Kingston upon Thames. The university has recruited the Australian Steve Keen as head of its economics department, and it […]
A Christmas competition with a difference…
… and the chance to win a bottle of champagne. For the prolonged holiday break, a quiz is appropriate. But one with a difference: not just questions, but comments to go with them. A prize of a bottle of champagne to the best answers – just email them to me. The last couple of years […]
Christmas jerseys: a great intellectual challenge
What would you buy Jeremy Corbyn for Christmas? Printable answers only, please. But somehow, a Christmas jumper seems appropriate. It would match the 1980s-style shell suit he wore the other day. Perhaps one with a portrait of Stalin and the slogan ‘Teacher, Leader, Friend’, a phrase in widespread use in the old Soviet Union, a […]
Black Friday, Games and the Stock Market
Black Friday has come and gone. The massive surge into the shops which was anticipated in much of the media failed to materialise. Many retail outlets were quieter than a normal Friday. In contrast, internet shopping went wild. Amazon had its biggest ever day in the UK, selling over 7 million items. Argos and John […]
Could Ernie replace Andy? The Bank’s take on automation
The Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Andy Haldane, has been in the news with his predictions that up to 15 million jobs in the UK are at risk of being lost to automation. This is a huge number, around half the total number of people in work today. Haldane injected a note of […]
Groucho Marx and Property Bubbles
The commercial property market in London has been booming for several years. The Bank of England is concerned about yet another property bubble building up. The executive director for financial stability, strategy and risk at the Bank, Alex Brazier, warned in a speech last month that positive sentiment in the industry must be “tempered by […]
Do markets solve the problem of discrimination?
The Prime Minister recently announced that the civil service will now introduce name-blind recruitment. When people apply for public sector jobs, their name will not appear on the documents sent to the appointment panel. Major companies such as HSBC, KPMG, the BBC and the NHS are following suit. Economists have produced a substantial body of […]
Integration won’t save the struggling Eurozone
Olivier Blanchard, the recently retired Head of Economics at the International Monetary Fund, has something of a track record with his predictions. In 2013, he warned George Osborne that he was “playing with fire” with the UK’s recovery from the financial crisis. Austerity had to be relaxed. We now know that we were actually nowhere […]
