Reeves has placed an uncertainty premium on the British economy
Rachel Reeves promised to restore economic stability, but the outcome of her various actions has been to increase uncertainty, says Paul Ormerod Daniel Ellsberg, who died in 2023 in his 90s, was a true Renaissance Man. After a stellar career as an economics student at Harvard, he served in the Marines before working for the […]
It may already be too late for Labour
The popularity of the Labour party has plunged since the election, and history tells that once a certain narrative has taken hold, it’s very difficult to turn it around, says Paul Ormerod Since the general election in July, the popularity of both the Prime Minister and the Labour Party has fallen sharply. Labour’s share of […]
The main task of the next Tory leader is to repaint the party’s image
Since the election in July, Starmers have been the stock to short. In the middle of that month, the Prime Minister had a net approval rating of plus 19 per cent. It is now minus 26 per cent, a huge 45 point turnround. But as with all stocks, past performance is not necessarily a guide […]
Labour shortages make light work of fears of a post-Brexit unemployment surge
In the two decades before the Brexit referendum, there was a large increase in the number of people moving from the EU to the UK. In the mid-1990s there were less than one million EU citizens living in the UK. By the mid-2010s, this had risen to 3.6 million. The bulk of the increase came […]
Science has been overrun with politics – it’s time to take it back
At the onset of the Covid pandemic in February 2020, the pages of the Lancet, a very prestigious medical journal, carried a statement eulogising China and the efforts it had already made to deal with the virus. For the luminaries who signed the statement, no praise could be too high for the Chinese. They had […]
Citizens assemblies are no solution to the climate challenge — we need innovation
At first sight, long-term swings in individual seats in Australian elections are a definite niche interest, one for the real trainspotter. But during a visit to Sydney University’s Complex Systems Institute, I noticed a fascinating piece in The Australian newspaper. The Australian Labor Party had a good result in the 2007 federal elections, and a […]
A gender equality lesson for the new cabinet from the world of academia
There has been much discussion on the gender and ethnic composition of Boris Johnson’s cabinet. The Channel 4 Fact Check site calculates that 33 MPs are entitled to attend cabinet. Of these, six – 18 per cent – are from an ethnic minority background. According to the 2011 Census, 14 per cent of the UK […]
From taxes to cats, May’s government has been an affront to Tory ideology
Theresa May has finally announced her resignation. How can we capture the flavour of her tenure in office? This can be found in the dry and measured content of the Economic and Fiscal Outlook from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The OBR stated in its latest publication in March 2019 that: “the tax receipts-to-GDP […]
Puzzled over Australia’s shock election result? Economics can help explain
The surprise of the week was the re-election of the centre-right Coalition government in the Australian General Election. The Labor opposition had led every major opinion poll for the past two years. But Scott Morrison of the Coalition is still Prime Minister – and it is his Labor opponent who is resigning as leader. Economists, […]
Bereft of new ideas, Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party is dead set on sticking its head in the sand
One of the most dispiriting aspects of the Labour Party conference, which ended last week, is how deeply conservative the political left has become. Its remedies for Britain’s problems look to the past and not the future. Far from embracing new technology, the left is hostile to it. This was not always the case. Labour […]
Doublethinking or dim? Why the Labour party can’t be trusted with the economy
Are members of the Labour Party frontbench experts in doublethink? The concept was invented by George Orwell for his novel 1984, written in the 1940s as a critique of the Soviet Union. Masters of doublethink can hold, for purposes of political expediency, two opposing opinions at the same time, one of which might be complete […]
The demise of Germany’s Social Democrats reflects the challenge for all liberal parties
The German elections on Sunday went pretty much according to the polls. Another victory for Chancellor Merkel. Much of the commentary has focussed on the success of the far-right Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) party. One of its leading candidates eulogised the German armed forces during the Second World War – a topic even more sensitive […]
Less austerity will always mean more tax
There is a great deal of discussion, following the election, of relaxing or even abandoning austerity. There is an equal amount of confusion about this, because the same word is being used to describe two quite separate concepts. The consequences of the government changing its policy on austerity are dramatically different, depending on which one […]
Sorry Corbyn, consumers aren’t as sold on nationalisation as you’d like to think
One of the most remarkable features of the Conservative election campaign was the dog which did not bark. There was no systematic attempt to undermine Jeremy Corbyn’s wholly implausible economic narrative. Magic Money Tree comments aside, Labour’s economic incompetence was allowed to pass almost unchallenged. One part of Labour’s economic offer which really did strike […]
Labour’s plans add up on paper, but that won’t translate to the real world
The two main manifestos have been published. Initially at least, the Labour one seems the more popular. Many people are susceptible to being bribed with other people’s money. Labour claims that their plans to spend an additional £49 billion have been fully costed. At one level, this is true. A set of tax changes and […]
