Haldane is right – the Chancellor’s doom-mongering is dangerous
The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, often mentions her experience as an economist at the Bank of England. But she has been taken to task by no less a figure than the former chief economist of the Bank, Andy Haldane. Haldane notes that “just after the election, there was a sense of refresh, a sense of renewal, a […]
Without a recession, Bailey won’t wrest back control over inflation
Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, admitted last week that interest rates will remain higher for some time to come. The boss of the Old Lady said he stood by the target inflation rate of 2 per cent, but to get there, higher interest rates were necessary in the arsenal for the “last […]
Taxes have never been so high but it’s still not enough for some
Taxes are higher than at any time since the Second World War. The UK’s overall tax burden now stands at 37 per cent of the total national income, according to last week’s report by the Institute of Fiscal Studies. The Conservatives will preside over the biggest tax-increasing parliament in living memory. Taxes on average have […]
If politicians keep ignoring economists, our strategies will never be cost-effective
Economists have been getting bad press because of the antics of the Bank of England and its Monetary Policy Committee. We are suffering from what we, as economists, describe as a “negative externality”. It might be convenient for you to drive your car, for example, but the emissions which this creates have a negative impact […]
From international trade to interest rates, macroeconomics is in yet another tail spin
Fifty years ago, the Euro area accounted for 30 per cent of the world’s economy. Since then, there has been a steady fall; now, its share of world output has halved. In contrast, the Asia-Pacific economies have grown much faster. These trends are well established, and this region will increasingly dominate the world economy. Yet, […]
Sunak’s flexibility has been curtailed by our undue reverence for the Bank of England
Rishi Sunak will deliver an updated Autumn Statement next week, after Liz Truss’ so-called “mini-budget” triggered her demise. His freedom for manoeuvre has been sharply contained by the new found reverence being accorded to the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility. The Bank of England has forecast a long recession, which could […]
Central banks have fooled themselves into thinking they have power over inflation
The failures of central banks around the world to anticipate and control the current upsurge in inflation are now apparent to all. What has been going on with the highly technical models which economists in these institutions build to try and explain inflation? If we look under the bonnet, we find a debate which is […]
As Johnson squirms, his party must remember the roots of Conservatives values
Boris Johnson’s government now has a penchant for embracing policies which, to many, have a distinctively non-conservative feel. High taxes, a big state. What’s next? An old idea which is currently being given new legs is that of a universal basic income (UBI). The basic concept is that all citizens of a country receive from […]
Burnley and Asda are unlikely warnings of debt-driven troubles
It has been a week of mixed messages. Not just on the release from lockdown, but on the economy. The Bank of England indicated that banks have been given six months to prepare for negative interest rates. The Monetary Policy Committee was quick to clarify that this did not mean that they would necessarily cut […]
To pay for this crisis, the government must keep in mind Ricardian equivalence
John Maynard Keynes could certainly craft a neat phrase. In the Second World War, he wrote in his pamphlet How to Pay for the War: “It is only in a free community that the task of government is complicated by the cause of social justice.” The impact of the coronavirus pandemic is similar to a […]
