Corbyn is completely out of touch with the real debate about UK austerity
Following the Brexit vote, normal service seems to have resumed. A key question in economic policy since the General Election of 2010 has moved centre stage once again: should the government abandon austerity? At one level, the question has an easy answer. Interest rates are now so low that the UK government can borrow for 30 […]
Why the economic picture tends to be rosier than initial estimates suggest
One of the surprises of last week was the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimate of economic growth in the second quarter of 2016, the period from April to the end of June. In the run up to Brexit, the economy expanded by 0.6 per cent on the first quarter of the year. This was […]
Why austerity must be the order of the day for May’s chancellor
On the face of it, the Brexiteers have a bit of explaining to do. A week before the vote, Boris Johnson dismissed fears about the value of sterling, and accused the governor of the Bank of England of “talking the economy down”. Yet the economy does seem to have stalled, property funds have had to […]
How Stalin’s right-hand man could help the UK in EU exit negotiations
The topic of behavioural economics is very fashionable. But many economists remain rather sniffy about it, arguing that it often does not really add to what the discipline already knows. But one of its most distinctive and strongest results from a policy perspective is its emphasis on what is called the “architecture of choice”. Economists […]
The only way could be down for shares – and Brexit is just the catalyst
The Brexit vote creates many uncertainties, exciting or frightening depending on your predilection. One thing which is certain is that the Leave victory was delivered by the less-skilled sections of the electorate. It seems part of a more general stirring up of what we might think of as the dispossessed, those who feel left behind […]
The EU referendum has shown just how irrational voters are
Some things never seem to change. In the mid-16th century, in the course of her short reign Queen Mary, a daughter of Henry VIII, tried to restore Catholicism. To this end, she arranged to marry King Philip of Spain, at a time when Spain dominated Europe. The Spanish ambassador in London sent back a gloomy […]
Old Europe’s poor innovation record is a harbinger of long-term stagnation
The economic debate around Brexit has been disappointing. Far too many of the points focus on the short-term. Would Brexit precipitate a sterling crisis? Well, if it did, at some point the currency would bounce back? Would it tip us into a recession? Maybe, but recessions come to an end. The key economic question, not […]
The poor state of macro justifies scepticism with Brexit disaster forecasts
David Cameron has tried to frame the Brexit debate into one based on economics. Standing with him is the overwhelming consensus of economists themselves, from academics to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Their pronouncements are not having that much impact on the electorate if the polls are to be believed. There is justification for this […]
Scotland’s fiscal fantasy and the impact of an OUT vote
A short visit to the Highlands last week was refreshing. The scenery is just as spectacular as ever, and the people just as welcoming. But elsewhere, the tectonic plates are shifting. Last week, a televised debate took place amongst the political leaders contesting the elections to the Scottish Parliament in May. It resembled a bidding […]
