The Ghost of Christmas Past could tell us where the negotiations all went wrong
In Charles Dickens’ A Christmas Carol, Scrooge finds being haunted by the Ghost of Christmas Past unbearable. He begs it to stop. The Ghost replies: “These are the shadows of things that have been. That they are what they are, do not blame me.” It might almost be the Prime Minister speaking about the whole […]
The evidence is in from across the Atlantic, and tax cuts benefit everyone
From discussions on how the UK should reform its tax and regulatory landscape to make the most of post-Brexit opportunities, to the rallies midterm election candidates have been holding across the US championing or lambasting the President’s tax cuts, the debate is still raging about how changes to taxes impact economies. But if you need […]
A tale of two Eurozones: Greater Germany and Club Med are drifting ever further apart
At the end of last week Federica Mogherini met leading members of the Trump administration. Mogherini, yet another Italian politician turned Euro-bureaucrat, is in fact the foreign policy chief of the European Union. She stood on her dignity, or rather the dignity of the European Commission, issuing a warning to America not to interfere with politics […]
It’s fanciful to think China’s economy will overtake the US’s anytime soon
Possibly the single most important of the tensions stoked up by President Trump is the rivalry between the United States and China. Economic strength will be the ultimate determinant of this struggle for the position of Top Nation. Comparisons of the size of economies, particularly ones at very different levels of income per head, are fraught […]
Forget “post-truth”: A compelling vision drove Brexit and Trump triumphs
The buzz-phrase of the moment in political discussion is “post-truth”. Shell-shocked metropolitan liberals are astonished by both Brexit and Donald Trump’s success. How could their own rational analysis not find favour with the electorate? People in the internet age must be no longer capable of recognising the truth. Both the Brexiteers and Trump certainly created […]
Dump opinion polls for social media to understand people’s real preferences
So the pollsters got it wrong again. After the general election last year and then Brexit, it is perhaps not surprising. What is surprising is just how wrong they were. The real problem is the enormous confidence with which they pronounced that Clinton would win. The Princeton Election Consortium was probably top of the class, […]
No wonder free trade is under threat: we’re just rediscovering its losers
It had been an article of faith among economists and policy-makers that free trade is a Good Thing. Trade liberalisation was a key feature of the world economic order enforced by the United States after the Second World War. For decades, the trend of removing trade barriers led to world trade growing around twice as rapidly as […]
Why the same flaws afflict economic data as political opinion polls
Who will win the US presidency? Opinion polls have got a bad name in Britain, at least. During the 2010 general election campaign, many suggested that Gordon Brown could still continue in power in a minority government or coalition. The polling record in the 2015 campaign was even worse. Most polls showed the two main […]
