Who will rule the 21st Century?

This is a nice big question to ponder on the holiday beach or in the rented villa. A vast amount has already been written on the rise of China and whether the US will be replaced as the global superpower. And where exactly does Europe fit into all this? It is easy to make a […]

Why are markets so volatile?

Mainstream economic thinking has considerable difficulty in explaining the massive degree of volatility of financial markets over the past few months.Both shares and bonds exhibit large fluctuations on an almost daily basis. The problem is particularly acute for the concept which is fundamental to a great deal of modern macroeconomics, based on the so-called ‘representative […]

Expansionary fiscal contraction

To many people, this phrase is an oxymoron. How can fiscal contraction be expansionary? But the evidence suggests that this is exactly what has been happening in the United States. In terms of national output, GDP, the trough of the trough of the recession was reached in the second quarter of 2009 (2009Q2). We have […]

The economic recession: where are we now, and how bad has it been?

The world economy as a whole is roaring away. The 5 per cent real GDP growth on 2010 is almost the highest annual growth rate seen over the past 20 years. And even in 2009, world output fell by only 0.5 per cent. The problems have been almost exclusively in the developed world. Looking at […]