China’s zero-Covid policy must be a cautionary tale for the UK
As we greet the new year with the hope of more serene times ahead, some might do it with a measure of doubt and trepidation for a variety of reasons, one of them being the government’s decision to resurrect Covid-19 restrictions. Admittedly, it is in a very limited form and only affects arrivals from China. For […]
Precaution is a useful thing, but designing policy based on maybes is a dangerous road
It is is so familiar, the script almost writes itself. Health professionals start to call for more restrictive measures at the slightest whiff of bad news. The government initially dismisses the concerns. Gradually, ministers – many of them almost wholly innumerate – are beaten into submission by projections of what might happen. If we were […]
Embracing uncertainty is the only path out of the pandemic
A few days ago, Sajid Javid made one of the most thoughtful and encouraging statements by a government minister during the whole Covid crisis. Early In July, he seemed to be falling under the control of the modellers. The number of daily infections, he stated confidently, would soon reach 100,000, bowing to the so-called experts. […]
Scientists’ dire warning of thousands of deaths from Indian variant is a dangerous abuse of public trust
The epidemiologists are at it again. The Indian variant of the Covid virus has resurrected their projections of doom and gloom. The scientists who advise the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) have said the full lifting of lockdown on 21 June could lead to 1,000 deaths a day and no fewer than 10,000 hospitalisations […]
Government scientists must be transparent about flawed Covid models
The strength of the economic recovery as Britain emerges from lockdown is a hotly contested subject among economists. Some believe there will be a massive surge in demand as consumers celebrate their freedom, others argue it will take time to claw back confidence. Economic forecasts are subject to the same faults as any projections, as […]
Following the science? This government lacks a basic grasp of the scientific method
Verification and validation. It is hard to imagine a more nerdy phrase. But it is, in essence, how science makes progress. It is what we have to do to check whether a scientific claim or theory is correct. And it has been seriously neglected during the Covid-19 crisis. Just over a century ago, for example, […]
