What England’s greatest ever batsman tells us about how to use statistics
Cricket fans will be delighted that Joe Root is establishing himself this summer as a truly great batsman. His Test match batting average of 55.49 is bettered by only 16 players from across the world since Test cricket began in 1877. Root currently sits seventh in the England career batting averages, and he clearly has […]
Sorry, Prime Minister: Legislation won’t end excess in the boardroom
A key platform of our new Prime Minister is to curb what she perceives to be boardroom excesses. “It is not anti-business to suggest that big business needs to change”, she said. One of her proposals is to allow employee and worker representatives to sit on company boards, a suggestion which has not gone down […]
Why austerity must be the order of the day for May’s chancellor
On the face of it, the Brexiteers have a bit of explaining to do. A week before the vote, Boris Johnson dismissed fears about the value of sterling, and accused the governor of the Bank of England of “talking the economy down”. Yet the economy does seem to have stalled, property funds have had to […]
Is Britain on the edge of recession? History is an unreliable guide
Concerns are growing about a marked slowdown in the UK economy. The Lloyds Bank purchasing managers’ index, for example, fell to 52.1 in April, its lowest point since 2013. The initial estimate for GDP, total output, in the first quarter of this year shows an increase of just 0.4 per cent on the final quarter of 2015. […]
Why Julian Assange shows that only intelligent machines can be truly rational
Is Julian Assange rational? There are no prizes for guessing the responses of most City A.M. readers to this question. He faces questioning over allegations (which he denies) in Sweden, and he claims that America will try to extradite him and put him in prison for a very long time. Assange has chosen instead to […]
If it costs nothing, is it worth anything?
Most of us don’t love our banks. We have all experienced the unanswered letter, the seemingly interminable waits on hold before being put through to someone who gives the impression of auditioning for the infamous “computer says no” television sketch. Yet we are surprisingly loyal to our current accounts. Figures from Bacs suggest that around […]
Are the markets telling the truth?
The opening month of 2016 has been marked by sharp falls in asset prices, not just in financial markets but in commodities such as oil. The conventional wisdom is that the markets form a rational assessment of future prospects for the economy, and set prices accordingly. So if prices fall, we should be downgrading our […]
Science does not always make sense
The story of the week for many people was the new alcohol guidelines issued by the UK’s chief medical officers. In 1995, the recommended weekly upper limit for men was set at 21 units, or around eight pints. This has now been slashed to only 14 units. We might imagine that this drastic reduction is […]
It is not just the Euro. Southern Europe faces a major structural crisis
Major shocks to social and economic systems ruthlessly expose weaknesses which can be contained in more normal times. When the price of oil quadrupled in 1973/74, the different levels of resilience in the labour markets of Western Europe were quickly revealed. Inflation initially rose sharply everywhere. By 1976, it had fallen to 4 per cent […]
Groucho Marx and Property Bubbles
The commercial property market in London has been booming for several years. The Bank of England is concerned about yet another property bubble building up. The executive director for financial stability, strategy and risk at the Bank, Alex Brazier, warned in a speech last month that positive sentiment in the industry must be “tempered by […]
