Why Julian Assange shows that only intelligent machines can be truly rational
Is Julian Assange rational? There are no prizes for guessing the responses of most City A.M. readers to this question. He faces questioning over allegations (which he denies) in Sweden, and he claims that America will try to extradite him and put him in prison for a very long time. Assange has chosen instead to […]
If it costs nothing, is it worth anything?
Most of us don’t love our banks. We have all experienced the unanswered letter, the seemingly interminable waits on hold before being put through to someone who gives the impression of auditioning for the infamous “computer says no” television sketch. Yet we are surprisingly loyal to our current accounts. Figures from Bacs suggest that around […]
Are the markets telling the truth?
The opening month of 2016 has been marked by sharp falls in asset prices, not just in financial markets but in commodities such as oil. The conventional wisdom is that the markets form a rational assessment of future prospects for the economy, and set prices accordingly. So if prices fall, we should be downgrading our […]
Science does not always make sense
The story of the week for many people was the new alcohol guidelines issued by the UK’s chief medical officers. In 1995, the recommended weekly upper limit for men was set at 21 units, or around eight pints. This has now been slashed to only 14 units. We might imagine that this drastic reduction is […]
It is not just the Euro. Southern Europe faces a major structural crisis
Major shocks to social and economic systems ruthlessly expose weaknesses which can be contained in more normal times. When the price of oil quadrupled in 1973/74, the different levels of resilience in the labour markets of Western Europe were quickly revealed. Inflation initially rose sharply everywhere. By 1976, it had fallen to 4 per cent […]
Groucho Marx and Property Bubbles
The commercial property market in London has been booming for several years. The Bank of England is concerned about yet another property bubble building up. The executive director for financial stability, strategy and risk at the Bank, Alex Brazier, warned in a speech last month that positive sentiment in the industry must be “tempered by […]
Do markets solve the problem of discrimination?
The Prime Minister recently announced that the civil service will now introduce name-blind recruitment. When people apply for public sector jobs, their name will not appear on the documents sent to the appointment panel. Major companies such as HSBC, KPMG, the BBC and the NHS are following suit. Economists have produced a substantial body of […]
Why a sugar tax would be a big fat failure: People are too smart for central planners
Government ministers have bowed to pressure. They have published the report by Public Health England (PHE) which calls for a tax of up to 20 per cent on sugary drinks and foods. If the tax reduced sugar intake in line with the recommendations, it is claimed that more than 77,000 deaths could be prevented in […]
Um Bongo: a spotlight on modern social and economic behaviour
Readers who either had young children or were children themselves in the 1980s will recall the Um Bongo jingle. The advert assured us it was drunk in the Congo. A survey published last week to mark the 60th anniversary of British television advertising showed that no fewer than 32 per cent of the total sample […]
The national accounts are the new JK Rowling
A potential candidate for the world’s most boring book is the Office for National Statistics’ National Accounts: Sources and Methods. This book, all 502 pages of it, is currently available in hardback on Amazon for just 1p. It does exactly what it says in the title. It gives a detailed description of how the data […]
