Has Reeves realised she’s reached the limits of taxation?
Much of the economic damage has already been done, but in ruling out wealth taxes and further pay deals with doctors, at least the Chancellor is allowing a shimmer of light to peep through, says Paul Ormerod England’s cricketers narrowly failed to score the 374 runs needed to beat India in the final Test match […]
Starmer must face down the self-righteous clowns on his back benches
Keir Starmer’s attempt to select compliant MPs has backfired, producing a rebellious and ill-informed parliamentary party that has already successfully vetoed its own government’s economic policy, says Paul Ormerod A fundamental feature of the social and economic world is that intentions are not the same as outcomes. Morgan McSweeney and his colleagues exercised very close […]
Enough with black-hole blaming, Reeves is ignoring low hanging fruit
Raising taxes and plugging black holes, Labour’s discourse ignores proven (and easier) methods to boost productivity, says Paul Ormerod The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has a major financial problem. Much of this is of her own making. Her relentlessly negative narrative about the UK economy has in itself created a stagnant economy. The issue she faces […]
To find out who’s to blame for economic uncertainty, reeves should look in the mirror
Household spending is down £50bn since last year. It’s hardly surprising there’s so much uncertainty in the economy given the relentless negativity of the Chancellor herself, says Paul Ormerod Households in Britain are still saving large chunks of their incomes. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed this week that the percentage of income saved […]
Is Labour changing its mind about the OBR?
Labour is becoming increasingly disillusioned with the OBR as the reality sets in that no amount of forecasting can solve Britain’s spending problems, says Paul Ormerod How fashions change! Less than a year ago, Labour politicians were falling over themselves to praise the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). Labour was elected on a promise of […]
What Rachel Reeves can learn from Geoffrey Howe
In 1981, Geoffrey Howe defied Keynesian orthodoxy by tightening fiscal policy during a recession – and completely changed the narrative about the British economy. Reeves must do the same, but all she offers is doom and gloom, says Paul Ormerod The UK economy is either already in or very close to a recession. Despite Rachel […]
Spring Statement: Reeves should abolish the OBR
By strengthening the OBR, Reeves has created severe difficulties for herself. Vital decisions about our economic future should be made by politicians, not unelected quangocrats, says Paul Ormerod Later today we will know for certain what is in Rachel Reeves’ Spring statement, a budget to all intents and purposes. But as is usually the case […]
The bond markets must not be allowed block defence spending
The Treasury has pledged an extra £2bn for UK exporters to secure overseas defence orders. The Germans are funding increased defence spending through debt so why can’t we? The Chancellor needs to start telling a better story about the future direction of our economy, says Paul Ormerod President Trump wants European countries to spend five […]
What ever happened to levelling up?
Levelling up has all but disappeared from the government’s agenda. That’s a big mistake for growth, writes Paul Ormerod Later this month Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver her Spring Statement. It seems to be waited on more in fear than hope. But one area of policy appears to have more or less disappeared from the […]
Reeves has placed an uncertainty premium on the British economy
Rachel Reeves promised to restore economic stability, but the outcome of her various actions has been to increase uncertainty, says Paul Ormerod Daniel Ellsberg, who died in 2023 in his 90s, was a true Renaissance Man. After a stellar career as an economics student at Harvard, he served in the Marines before working for the […]
Investment can boost growth – if it comes with technological progress
The need to boost the UK’s rate of economic growth was a central theme of the first budget delivered by Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor. Reeves emphasised the importance of increasing the amount of investment which takes place in the UK. She sees this as the key way to raise growth. To this end, she announced […]
Borrowing to invest is all very well but what about value for money?
The precise contents of the budget are still secret. But a widely trailed theme is that the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, wants to create as much scope as possible for extra public sector investment. She appears to be willing to rewrite the existing fiscal rules in order to accommodate the increase. In principle of course there […]
The threat of higher taxes is already harming growth
The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, had made no secret of her desire to make economic growth her top policy objective. She reinforced the message this week in an interview with the Financial Times, using the mantra “invest, invest, invest!”. Perhaps unwittingly, this carries echoes of Karl Mark’s memorable phrase in Das Kapital: “Accumulate, accumulate. That is Moses and the […]
Haldane is right – the Chancellor’s doom-mongering is dangerous
The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, often mentions her experience as an economist at the Bank of England. But she has been taken to task by no less a figure than the former chief economist of the Bank, Andy Haldane. Haldane notes that “just after the election, there was a sense of refresh, a sense of renewal, a […]
