My Blog
The costs of lockdown can no longer be justified
In an otherwise depressing week, two pieces of very good news emerged from India. In Mumbai, blood tests conducted by
Great expectations: The Darwinian wars of economic and epidemiological forecasting
A key concept in modern economics is, to use the jargon term, rational expectations. The idea has dominated orthodox macroeconomics
Why you should read the small print on alarmist Covid-19 death projections
Another day, another lurid, headline-grabbing number of deaths to expect from Covid-19. This time, it was a study from the
Office clusters are as crucial to productivity as they ever were
The Prime Minister is now demanding that offices reopen to revive economic activity in the centres of towns and cities.
The costs of lockdown could far outweigh the benefits
Radical leaders such as Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand and Nicola Sturgeon in Scotland have gained plaudits through their relentless
Innovation is the only way to recover from the Covid crisis
One silver lining of the Covid-19 crisis has been a surge in innovation. Enterprising firms have invented both new products
The government should have been working on multiple tracing apps all along
The NHS contract tracing app has been scrapped in favour of a system developed by Google and Apple. Although health
History shows us that slavery is an economic catastrophe as well as a moral one
Slavery has certainly been in the headlines in the past couple of weeks. Given this sudden interest in this area
Get the Bank of England focused on the real economy
Economic policy is returning to its usual position of prominence. Fears of a major rise in unemployment are starting to
What can we learn from the Black Death? Be prepared, trust entrepreneurs, and have faith
Can we learn from history? An excellent book by Ben Gummer on the Black Death in fourteenth century Britain, The
Covid crisis has exposed the Scottish nationalists once again
In London, the Covid virus is disappearing rapidly. Hospital trusts are increasingly reporting days with no new cases at all.
Crisis could be a chance to change education for the better
In the mid-19th century, Japan was an impoverished feudal backwater. A fleet of American warships totally humiliated their navy, and compelled
The unions stand on the precipice
Len McCluskey, the leader of the trade union Unite, probably did as much as anybody to ensure Boris Johnson’s massive
Mythbusting coronavirus is vital for life to go back to normal
As the government plans the timetable for getting Britain back to work, opinion polls continue to show strong support for
Coronavirus: Fake news that an elderly lockdown is remainer revenge could spread
The attention of policy makers has been focused on the science of how viruses either spread or are contained in
Coronavirus: NHS staff are let down by bureaucracy
The praise for health workers dealing with Covid-19 is universal. From cleaners and porters to the most distinguished consultant, all
Coronavirus: Economists have a role to play in recovery
Lockdowns are starting to be eased in Europe. Austria, Denmark, Italy and Spain are all moving back towards normality. At
Coronavirus: A traffic light loosening gives the economy hope
The strategy of exiting from the lockdown is far too important to be left in the hands of health professionals.
Once we reach a social distancing tipping point, more restrictions won’t help at all
How long should the lockdown last? Should it be tightened or relaxed? An abstract concept from both epidemiology and network
This pandemic may lead to more trade barriers, but is that such a bad thing? Opinion
The current crisis dominates everything, from trade to everyday life. But, within a relatively short space of time, it will
