My Blog
A Tale of Two Recessions: Grounds for Optimism
The economic news at the moment is mixed, and the impact of the 2007-2009 financial crash is far from over.
How Big Is My Multiplier?
The debate rages about whether the Chancellor should implement a Plan B, or C or D or even Z. There
Why teachers are just like bankers
The current highly emotional debate about GCSE grades is not very enlightening. But what has happened tells us a lot
How to unpick the apparent paradox of falling GDP and rising unemployment
GDP estimates are eagerly awaited in the City, and dominate the media headlines. Huge significance is attached to arithmetically trivial differences, whether between market expectations and the announced figure, or to subsequent revisions to the data.
But GDP is not something which can be put in a set of scales, say, and measured accurately. The concept is clear. It is the value of national output at market prices. Market prices? How do we value the public sector, where there are no market prices? A series of plausible conventions has evolved as to how to value such activities. But there is a substantial amount of arbitrary judgment involved.
USA vs China continued… The Influence of Networks (and the Olympics!)
The last three Olympics have seen a titanic battle between the US and China to head the medals table. If
Who will rule the 21st Century?
This is a nice big question to ponder on the holiday beach or in the rented villa. A vast amount
The Olympics, traffic in Central London and a bar in Santa Fe
We all know now about the empty roads and deserted shops, all quite contrary to the official announcements before the
Why Can’t Debt Just be Inflated Away?
The debt problems which the UK and Europe currently face are essentially ones of political economy. Basically, there is a
Royal Bank of Scotland fiasco shows the power of networks
The last week or so has seen complete mayhem in the Royal Bank of Scotland and its subsidiaries. A computer
Kahneman and schizophrenia in economics
I was at a fascinating session last night, with Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman in conversation with a leading thinker from
Political map of London is like America: strong geographic segregation
Thomas Schelling is a brilliant American polymath, who deservedly won the Nobel Prize in economics in 2005. One of his
Compulsion or Co-operation: Curbing Executive Pay
Andrew Moss, who has been in charge of Aviva since 2007, has become the third chief executive to quit amid
Why do films flop?
The Disney sci-fi flick John Carter has become one of the biggest flops in movie history. The studio has announced
Corporate structure, Darwinism and Random Selection
The corporate world exhibits a wide variety of structures. Co-operatives and partnerships have been around for a long time and
Co-operation and Competition
Ed Mayo, ex-head of the New Economics Foundation and now of Co-ops UK, has an interesting blog (here) on the
Minsky Mania: a Raincheck
The American economist Hyman Minsky is currently very fashionable, especially amongst those who are sympathetic to the idea of more
Why are markets so volatile?
Mainstream economic thinking has considerable difficulty in explaining the massive degree of volatility of financial markets over the past few
Expansionary fiscal contraction
To many people, this phrase is an oxymoron. How can fiscal contraction be expansionary? But the evidence suggests that this
Why is economic growth stalling? May be it is Ricardian equivalence!
The British and American recoveries do seem to be stalling. The recovery profile is by no means as strong as
Recovery is not always smooth
There has been huge media attention about the 2011 Q2 UK GDP growth figures released today. The estimate of 0.2
