It’s not cutting-edge AI we should fear, but mediocre automation
If there were a betting market in future winners of the Nobel prize in economics, MIT’s Daniel Acemoglu would be at pretty short odds. His highly innovative work has already won him a string of prizes. So his research is always worth following – especially when he challenges the conventional wisdom, as in his paper […]
Emojis are a better metric for wellbeing than traditional data methods
HMRC’s programme to make tax digital continues to roll out. Anyone with a small business will know about the imminent deadline of 1 April, when VAT returns become digital. Quick to seize an opportunity, several companies have developed software to ease the task. The digitisation of tax raises the wider issue of whether technology will […]
The evidence is in from across the Atlantic, and tax cuts benefit everyone
From discussions on how the UK should reform its tax and regulatory landscape to make the most of post-Brexit opportunities, to the rallies midterm election candidates have been holding across the US championing or lambasting the President’s tax cuts, the debate is still raging about how changes to taxes impact economies. But if you need […]
The intellectual imperialism of economics
At this time of year, most people are focused on leisure. The holiday you have just had, the one you are on now, or the one you are just about to go on. With exquisite timing, the 1 August issue of the top Journal of Economic Perspectives has a symposium of papers about work. The […]
Trump’s tariffs are unlikely to plunge the global economy into a Great Depression
The Trojans had to beware of Greeks bearing gifts. In the same way, politicians need to be suspicious of petitions signed by economists. The vast majority of the UK economics profession backed Project Fear, which predicted a rise in unemployment of half a million by the end of 2016. Instead, unemployment has fallen almost continuously […]
Does the productivity gap actually exist?
Whoever wins the election tomorrow will have to grapple with what appears to be a fundamental economic problem. Estimated productivity growth in the UK is virtually at a standstill. The standard definition of productivity is the average output per employee across the economy as a whole, after adjusting output for inflation – or “real” output, […]
It’s fanciful to think China’s economy will overtake the US’s anytime soon
Possibly the single most important of the tensions stoked up by President Trump is the rivalry between the United States and China. Economic strength will be the ultimate determinant of this struggle for the position of Top Nation. Comparisons of the size of economies, particularly ones at very different levels of income per head, are fraught […]
The people of Burnley and Bradford have a point about the impact of immigration
The scenes as the migrant camp was cleared in Calais once again provoked bitter divisions in British society. Metropolitan luvvies and liberals tweeted their virtue and called for no restrictions on immigration. In more traditional areas, there is active resentment at the possibility of even further inflows of foreigners. When New Labour decided in the […]
Why the same flaws afflict economic data as political opinion polls
Who will win the US presidency? Opinion polls have got a bad name in Britain, at least. During the 2010 general election campaign, many suggested that Gordon Brown could still continue in power in a minority government or coalition. The polling record in the 2015 campaign was even worse. Most polls showed the two main […]
The blob is wrong: competition and independence raise school standards
The A-Level results released last week confirm the dominance of schools in London and the South East. Provisional league tables have only appeared so far for state schools, but these two regions have two-thirds of the top 100. South Yorkshire, Tyne and Wear, and Wales did not have a single school between them in the […]
